Gold price 2024: What do analysts expect?

As 2023 is drawing to a close, gold has been caught between sharply higher key interest rates, the resulting significantly more attractive bond yields on the one hand and increasing global uncertainty due to unresolved or newly ignited geopolitical crises on the other. This led to a market situation in which the outflows from gold funds and gold-backed ETCs more than compensated for the inflows. At the same time, the price of the precious metal, as a proven safe haven, gained traction over the course of the year. Since January, the price per gram of gold has risen 7.3 per cent from €55.08 to 59.12 (as of 27 November 2023). In US dollar per ounce, it appreciated even more, by 10.2 per cent to US$2,012.56 over the same period. So, how will the precious metal perform in the coming year?

Interest rate turnaround, central banks, trouble spots: what will move the gold price in 2024

The end of the continuous key interest rate raises, which many market experts had already expected to occur in 2023, could actually happen next year, which should give gold a boost. The same applies to the potential further expansion of central banks’ gold reserves, which accounted for almost 8 per cent of global gold purchases in Q3 2023. The question of how much gold will be sought as a safe haven next year or whether the geopolitical crises can be defused, to be hoped for the sake of those affected, remains equally relevant.

Gold price forecasts range from 1,950 to 2,200 US$ per ounce

While UBS analysts expect a gold price of around 1,950 US$ by mid-2024, Collin Plume, CEO at Noble Gold Investments, believes a price of up to 2,100 US$ is conceivable. The analysts at JPMorgan have higher expectations, predicting that the precious metal will reach 2,175 US$ by the end of next year. The experts at InvestingHaven, as well as their colleagues at Bethmann Bank, are even more optimistic with a price target of  2,200 US$ for 2024. However, how the gold price will actually develop depends on the factors mentioned above, some of which are difficult to predict.