Great expectations: Where will gold be heading in 2025?

Since the gold price per ounce recently broke through the 2,500 US$ threshold, many investors are currently wondering whether the gold rally, which has been going on for most of the year, has reached its peak or  further price increases can be expected. Since the beginning of the year, the gold price in the US and Eurozone has risen by around 22 per cent, making gold one of the most attractive assets in 2024 to date. And many analysts expect it to remain strong in the medium term.

US: Gold remains bullish despite lower interest rate cut expectations

According to Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, the gold price has somewhat decoupled from the Fed interest rate policy and real US interest rate trends. His colleague Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, is convinced that gold will continue to perform well despite a strong US dollar and the presidential elections in November. As long as the geopolitically tense global situation, inflation hedging by institutional investors and central banks’ buying mood continue to drive the gold price, she believes that further price increases to 2,600 US$ per ounce by the end of 2025 are possible.

Numerous analysts predict gold price of 2,700 to 3,000 US$ by end of 2025

While the Economic Forecast Agency EFA sees the precious metal at a minimum of 2,563 US$ by the end of this year and at least 3,012 US$ by the end of 2025, analysts at Prime XBT expect gold to reach 3,000 US$ or higher next year. This view is shared by Aakash Doshi, Head of Commodity Research at Citigroup. In March, he had forecast a gold price of 3,000 US$ per ounce for 2025. These projections are based on the assumption that the global geopolitical situation will not change significantly and that the risk of a US recession will increase – a looming threat in recent years which has yet to materialise. Employment data and inflation rate most recently turned out significantly better than expected.