How do analysts expect the gold price to perform in 2025?

This year, the gold price reached its respective all-time high on both sides of the Atlantic at US$2,685.49 in September and €83.55 in November. With an increase in value of 31.35 per cent in the US and 37.13 per cent in the Eurozone (as of 17 December 2024), this year has been one of the most profitable for gold investors in a long time. And how will the precious metal perform in the new year? Will the unrelenting price rally continue, or will the gold price consolidate? Numerous analysts have pondered the question, coming to some very different conclusions.

Could the gold price rise to US$3,000 by the end of 2025?

In fact, quite a few commodity experts expect the gold price rally to continue in the new year. Analysts at J.P. Morgan, for example, see the precious metal in North America averaging at US$2,950, with the potential to reach US$3,000 per troy ounce. They justify this forecast with continuing inflation, the expectation of significantly more disruptive policies by the Trump administration and increased growth risks for the US economy. Their colleagues at Bank of America and UBS, as well as the commodities experts at Goldman Sachs, take a similar view. However, the latter also point to the Fed’s potentially more restrictive interest rate policy in 2025 as a risk to their forecast.

Profit-taking and fewer central bank purchases could weigh on gold in 2025

Rating agency Fitch believes that a consolidation of the gold price down to US$2,000 is possible in 2025, as well as an even further decline to 1,800 in 2026. Analysts point to decreasing demand and profit-taking on the part of investors due to the extremely high gold price as well as the recent slowdown of central banks’ buying activity. World Bank commodities experts take a somewhat more positive view, placing gold at US$2,100 in 2025. Their colleagues at the ING Group, on the other hand, forecast a gold price of US$2,700 for 2025, and 2,680 for 2026. Most analysts continue to view gold as bullish but expect appreciation to slow compared to 2024.