How long can a gold price rally last?

The current gold rally started in mid-October 2022 and has now lasted 129 weeks. This is undoubtedly long, but by no means entirely unusual for a period of an asset’s sustained upward momentum. A look back at the gold price rallies since the turn of the millennium shows that no less than three such phases have occurred since the end of 1999, some of which ran much longer than the current high, including one that lasted a full 445 weeks. These are the findings of a World Gold Council analysis based on historical Bloomberg data.

Longest gold price rally lasted more than eight years

Since the turn of the millennium, we have seen several prolonged and at times overlapping exceptional economic situations and geopolitical crises fuelling demand for the safe-haven investment gold. This led to three major gold price rallies. The shortest lasted 148 weeks from the end of October 2008 to early September 2011, the second longest ran 241 weeks from the end of 2015 to early August 2020, and the longest lasted a full 445 weeks from the end of August 1999 to early March 2008.

The current gold price rally is exceptional 

The duration of this most recent rally is perhaps not overly impressive compared to the three longest ones since the turn of the millennium. However, its speed and extent are just that, especially since the gold price was already at the very high levels of 1,649.30 US$ per ounce and 55.28 € per gram before the start of this series of continued price increases. To date, the gold price has risen to 3,116 US$ per ounce and 90 € per gram. The development of global trade relations, in particular regarding US tariff policy, and geopolitical flashpoints will determine how long the gold rally will continue. In view of the enormous price increase, it also remains to be seen whether sharper price corrections than in previous rallies are to be expected. Even seasoned commodity analysts are therefore having a hard time making market forecasts for the further course of 2025.